The right wing idiots were all over themselves pushing the idea that millions of Hillary voters would actually lift the lever for McCain. Undoubtedly, some did. Was there a "puma" effect? Almost, yes, a little one, and it is visible here. In Arkansas and Louisiana, alone of the 50 states, did a lower percentage of people vote for Obama than Kerry. Arkansas is pretty natural. Louisiana is close by?
By the way, Your Idiot Press Corps never made a big deal that the Republican party was fractured in three: the religious, the hawks, and the economic conservatives/libertarians.