Back The Attack (<-WWII era slogan) Georgian Admits Warmongeriness

     Georgian Official Says Georgia Started War.  He had been replaced as Ambassador to Moscow before these remarks.

Obama Preferred by International Audiences

PIPA did a poll of 23 countries concerning the 2008 US Presidential election and their results showed that in 22 of the 23 countries it wasn't even close, Obama was preferred.

The one country where it was close?  America.  I kid you a little.  They didn't actually poll Americans on that question, but at the time, July-August 2008, the race was very close in America.

It must be noted, however, that in Russia, Egypt and Turkey, most people didn't think either would be better.  I strongly suspect this is because of Obama's idiotic rhetoric concerning aggression in Georgia and South Ossetia, and his volte face of policy concerning Israel and Palestine. 

Language & Conflict In the News: South Ossetia Peace Deal in French

Bad French Prolongs Russia-Georgia Conflict, from the Telegraph, UK. 

Bernard Kouchner told a meeting of EU foreign ministers at the weekend that the ceasefire agreement was written in French before being translated into English and then Russian. Asked what problems surrounded the buffer zones, Mr Kouchner replied: "The translation, as always."

Language And Conflict In the News: Georgian and South Ossetian

This is a NY Times story by Ellen Barry discussing the linguistic issues in Georgia and South Ossetia mostly from the perspective of individuals.  It includes language bias preventing people from learning the language of the "other."

A war between the two groups in the early 1990s divided them almost surgically. Young Georgians stopped learning Russian, the lingua franca for the entire region in Soviet days; young Ossetians did not learn Georgian. Older people, who spoke both, pretended not to.

Magdalena Frichova, who monitored the conflict in South Ossetia for 10 years for the crisis group, recalled watching local officials wait, poker-faced, for a translator even when it was obvious that they understood. Over time, people began to struggle with languages they once spoke fluently.

Ellen Barry seems ignorant of early Soviet history, which encouraged society in the local language, and even redivided the Tsar's Russia into 15 Soviet Republics, each with their own language (although Belarus and Ukrainian are almost completely mutually intelligible with Russian).

Russia's Slow Pullout from Georgia

Russia was just showing that it BOTH doesn't have to conquer Georgia, and doesn't have to leave except on its own schedule.

2008 South Ossetian War Over. Who Won?

The biggest victor, naturally, was myself.  I really learned a ton about propaganda, catapulting it, and how whole countries of people can come to hate each other enough to want to kill each other. I watched the television news from both Russia and America and only very rarely did their respective realities overlap.  As a side note, I learned how problematic engaging in war can be unless you have your own, slick, media operation.  Certainly no one wants thousands of people to die so they can learn about war, but if I am quite lucky, I learned enough about war to prevent this many people dying in the future.

As for the combatants, Russia can claim a marginal victory.  First, her people love her more.  Polls show only a tiny fraction of Russians disapproved of Russians moving into South Ossetia.  Their mission was portrayed as a humanitarian one to fight off US-backed Georgian aggression.  I doubt many people in Russia think America wasn't being aggressive in Iraq, so, America's standing in Russia has declined, again.

Georgia gained nothing, lost a foothold in Abkhazia, and lost the right to have further peacekeepers in South Ossetia (pretty much guaranteed).  Saakashvili's plan, instead of gaining S. Ossetia for Georgia, seems to have lost it to her forever.

Because the interests of two veto-powers were involved, the UN Security Council was never going to be that useful.  Still, I'm proud of Panama.

I'm pretty sure that the President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, gained overall. 

Sorry, I'd write more, but I don't make a living off the truth.

WAR OVER?

Reports are that Russia has invaded Georgia proper and taken the town of Gori, a town near the South Ossetian border and near Tskhinvali.  Russia denies everything in green below.  The half-circle represents former Rusisan presence.  I'm leaving 7 in blue below, because even though Russia is denying it, it is a firsthand report.

REPORT 1: Bloomberg: Russian Troops Launch Ground Offensive in Georgia (Update3)
REPORT 2: VOA: Russia Confirms They Were in Senaki
REPORT 3: FOX News: broadcast reports Russians in Poti
REPORT 4: Bloomberg: Russian Troops in Senaki Came From Abkhazia
REPORT 5: IHT: Abkhazia Takes Kodori Gorge (only part of Abkhazia in Georgian control)
REPORT 6: Guardian UK: Medvedev Ends Russian Participation, Allegation of Continued Fighting in Gori
REPORT 7: CNN: Broadcast reports Russian troops heading from Gori towards Tblisi. Have pulled off road. 8:20 AM Wednesday. Russia has officially denied it.
REPORT 8: Russia Today: Broadcast Abkhazians have completely ejected Georgia from Abkhazia.
REPORT 9: CNN Broadcast: Russians have left Gori-Tblisi road and moved to southeastern S. Ossetia


This is an annoying, flashing map of all sites in Georgia targeted by Russia.

Russia Today Hosts Military Advisor

His comments, en toto, tell me I'm jumping the gun on assuming a Russian invasion of Tblisi.  He played down the current firing as "sporadic" and bound to stop within a few hours.  The Russians, however, are going to have a hard time with any future presence in Georgia, if they believe their own media, while Bush is asking for the status quo ante, which includes Georgian peacekeepers in S. Ossetia.

Fighting Continues in South Ossetia

Claims include: Georgia has re-started shelling of S. Ossetia and Georgia is trying to flood Tskhinvali.

I'm afraid it is becoming increasingly easy for me to imagine Russian tanks rolling through Tblisi, and VV Putin making sure Saakashvili, nor any other anti-Russian Georgian, is in charge when the tanks roll out.

Russian Foreign Ministry just made a statement.  Read a quote from Putin alleging that Georgia is rounding up Russians in Georgia.  They report that over 350 Russians have called Russia to complain of their detention while trying to leave Georgia.  This is the kind of report which, if unrebutted, will lead Putin to Tblisi.  Another statement will be given tonight by someone more important.

Russian Tanks Leave S. Ossetia for Georgia

Reportedly near town of Gori, not firing.

America, through UN Ambassador Khalilizad, said Russia must accept the "territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia."  Now, America, just a few months ago, said "UP YOURS, SERBIA!" and supported the secession of Kosovo.  Why can't it support the secession of South Ossetia or Abkhazia? 

To the best of my limited knowledge, the secessions of Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are wanted by super-majorities of Kosovars, South Ossetians and Abkhaz people, respectively.  Isn't that what's most important, rather than what Bush or Putin or their advisors want?

Russia Today "Facts"

Russians have never targeted any civilians.  Georgians, after blowing up the hospital, are now destroying the bakery, to starve the Ossetians.

Russian airstrikes have occurred, but never at civilian.  Georgians are dropping cluster bombs on Tskhinvali, some of which don't explode.

Saakashvili is an inveterate liar, who appears on CNN regularly, and he speaks English there!  Deptuy FM of Russia is aired by Russia Today right after that comment... speaking English.

The only Russians involved are peacekeepers, and the only things they bring with them are humanitarian aide.  The Georgians have merecenaries working for them, some of whom might be Americans, we have "special tests" we can do on the bodies to make sure.(I am not making this up!)

Russian Peacekeepers never fire except when attacked, while Georgians have shelled children's center and evacuees fleeing their atrocities.

Putin Arrives in North Ossetia

Russia Today is really playing up all the humanitarian efforts.  I really need some Georgian propaganda for balance!  I couldn't get to civil.ge yesterday, and Saakashvili only got two segments on CNN.

Bush Calls for Halt to All Violence

Apparently "all" does not include Iraq or Afghanistan.  Sorry, distant cousins!

Bush was only talking about Georgia, while Saakashvili has requested in the last hour that Georgia's Parliament declare war on Russia.  It's a war they can't win.  I hear most S. Ossetians like the Russians, more, so it would be like forcing themselves on an unwilling population.  Hmm, maybe that's why George Walker is behind them?  No, seriously, if America had spare military capacity, and it turns out Georgia's claims about how the violence started (very important to me) are true, we could do a little dance.  Now we can do next to nothing.  Realist speaking, Russia still has the 2nd most nukes in the world.  Economy and trade speaking, Russia has industrial workers and a large industrial base, and tons of natural resources.  McCain, though, wants to boot them from the G-8.

Will anyone ever clear up who actually started this incident?

U.N. Security Council Review

Today's session of the U.N. Security Council was mostly calls for cessation of hostilities.

Three cheers for the Panamanian member, who noted that the two sides had very different stories about what was actually happening.  Until some of that is resolved, it is hard, if not impossible, to know who to support.  Strange, though, it sounded like he was speaking Castillian.

The U.S. member didn't make any useful contribution.

There was an exchange!  The Georgian and Russian members were responding to each other.  I was more impressed by the Georgian, then again, he was speaking in English, and who knows what subtle verbal cues I missed from the Russian.

My Surmise

America pushed through the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia at a relative high-point.  The total morass that has become the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not yet horrible. 

The recent actions are basically the natural rollback of that overstretch.  Face it, America has no connection to the Georgian (or South Ossetian, or Abkhaz) people.  I don't get the impression that all Georgians are unequivocally of the opinion that they are glad it happened.

So, the conclusion?  Saakashvili will not remain as Georgian President, instead a pro-Russian Georgian will be placed in office.

Well, that's my guess, but unless America is willing to really push (with our armies in Iraq and Afghanistan?  We simply don't have the bodies!), Georgia is a tiny country on the border of mighty Russia, and the result is inevitable.

I still don't think Russia will invade Georgia proper with land troops unless Georgia (ludicrous!) tries to invade Russia, or starts exterminating Russians living in Georgia.

Russia Today Reports Full Mobilization by Georgia

Has 70K troops.  Earlier report says Saakashvili pulling all of 2K troops from Iraq.

Saakashvili says Russia Shelling Parts of Georgia outside South Ossetia

Saakashvili looked pretty ashen, gut-struck, something.  Video of the fighting are already appearing on the net.  Russia Today commentator Peter Lavelle is a warmonger.

By the way, lots of stories on Russia Today are talking about how the cities are now half ruined.  They also ran an older documentary they had on file about the same region, which described the ruin of the region in similar terms.

One Reason I Think Russia is Full of **it

Vladimir Putin said that it was a desecration of the ceasefire spirit of the Olympics to have engaged in violence at this time?  This claim seems so absurd.  At least one other official (South Ossetian leader or spokesperson) brought up this same argument. 

Do any of you know a war that was stopped for the Olympics?  This is obviously bullshit, pandering bullshit.  It doesn't prove anything.  Both sides are claiming the other started it, but only one side is saying that the Olympics are sullied. 

And that's one reason why I think Russia is more involved than they let on. 

Russian Air Contact Head Scratcher

Maybe 1000 people are dead in the last 24 hours, there are no reliable reports.  Russia is claiming it is going to stop all flights between Russia and Georgia... tomorrow night???  The two possibilities are

1. Russia is holding back to allow normal relations to resume
2. Russia is going to use civilian aircraft to get some people into Georgia

Definitely Past Reason

The Russian President Medvedev, in translation, said he was obligated, by the Consitution, to protect the "dignity" of all Russians citizens.  I like dignity as much as the next person, but it doesn't take much effort at all to turn any thing into an assault on the dignity of a Russian (including the inevitable Russian who has almost none).  For example, my comments here.