Stop the Bush Plan for Wrecking Social Security

     The 75 year projections of the Social Security Trustees are based on annual GDP growth of 1.5%.

     Bu$hCo's Social Security Commission Privateers base their estimates on an annual stock market returns of 6.5% over inflation.

     It is impossible to have a 6.5%-over-inflation market return for seventy five years and annual GDP growth, for the same period, of only 1.5%.

     If the Social Security Trustees used the larger GDP growth figures implied by the 6.5% market growth, there is no long term problem.

     One set of figures for the old system, another set of figures for the new.

     Here is economist PhD and UC Berkeley Professor J Brad DeLong saying the same thing...

In other words, the stock market can attain its 6-7% per year real payoff only if the macroeconomic news in the future is much better than [the] Social Security [Trustees are] projecting, in which case there's no Social Security financing problem at all.

Explaining the McAuliffe Move

     Wow, Air America is really just a DLC tool.  There are about 400 people who get to vote for DNC chair.  AAR is repeating a story I read somewhere on the net that McAuliffe is being requested to serve again, something he'd been cool to before.  The AAR report claimed none of the candidates was "gaining momentum."  It's such a small pool.  It's an absurd assertion.  The whole story seems designed to counter the reality that Howard Brush Dean is in the lead.  The story on AAR skips even mentioning Dean.

Dear Carlson Haters

     Why are we happy that Crossfire got cancelled and Carlson "fired?"  Carlson is going to have his own show now, over at MSNBC.  Crossfire cancelled means Carville and Begala are the ones "fired." with no place to go.  This is bad news, and the liberal blogosphere seems to be trumpeting it.

A great, sad day

     I don't think anyone is actually excited about Barbara Boxer's stand, although I respect her for it.  Did it seem to anyone else that she hinted that Kerry had asked her to do it, while Gore, in 2000, had asked the Senators to avoid doing it?  In any event, even if Ohio is contested, as in 2000, the Presidential election would get thrown to the US House of Representatives, where Bush would win.  Between the Gonzales hearings, and expected confirmation (what???), to the short debate and eventual confirmation of Bush as C-in-C for another four years, it's can't be counted as a good day.

     Then again, when was the last good day?

     A short note on Alberto.  John Ashcroft had been elected Governor of Missouri, and Senator from Missouri, without any help from George Walker B.  Alberto, however, has no real career without the current POTUS.  Alberto can be counted on to protect the White House, no matter what.  This loyalty might make him the "ideal" (from the point of the Executive) Solicitor General, but as Attorney General, Alberto is going to be expected to take the side of the people against the US government.  This task he is uniquely unsuited to do.

Tip to the London Economist

     For a few years I read the Economist, but got tired of the incessant libertarianism.  Sure, they had a cover story on BCCI, and don't treat their (richest of any magazine on Earth) readership like morons, but, hey, there's only so much a guy can take.     I haven't read the Economist, even once, since the Iraq War broke out.  A big "You Steaming, Stinking Idiots" shout out to Bu$hCo and Blair, available here

There is only one traffic law in Ramadi these days: when Americans approach, Iraqis scatter
...
[A] hefty marine sergeant leaps into the road, levels an assault rifle at his turbanned head, and screams: "Back this bitch up, motherfucker!"
...
"If anyone gets too close to us we fucking waste them," says a bullish lieutenant. "It's kind of a shame, because it means we've killed a lot of innocent people."
...
[M]arines say they shoot at any Iraqi they see handling a phone near a bomb-blast
...
"It gets to a point where you can't wait to see guys with guns, so you start shooting everybody...It gets to a point where you don't mind the bad stuff you do."
...
[T]he marines rarely see their attackers. When fired upon, they retaliate by blitzing whichever buildings they think the fire is coming from.

     There's plenty more, just like this.  This comes mostly from a deep disrespect for Iraqi life shown by the Marines.  None of this is at all surprising to me.  I've known its been happening the whole time.  I know Marines.  I was one.

Bait And Switch, Our Trillions Robbed by Bu$hCo

     The Social Security trustees calculate costs for the next 75 years based on certain assumptions.  Perhaps the most critical assumption is the rate of economic growth.  The Bu$hCo Social Security Commision Privateers rely on a rate of stock market profits.  The Privateers project 6.5% above inflation, annual return on the stock market.  This, in turn, implies a certain amount of GDP growth.  More growth, in fact, than is allowed for one when the Social Security trustees calculate the 75 year deficit of Social Security.

     The Bu$hCo hypocrites have one set of numbers for themselves, and another set for everyone else.

     Spread the word.  Thanks to J. Brad De Long's explanations, and I have no reason to slight Kinsley's proof .

Social Security and the Markets

     One of the central tenets, if not the central axiom, of the "Markets do it better" philosophers is based on the idea that markets set correct prices.  One of the central premises of the Bu$hCo Fraud[1] known as "reform" of Social Security is that individuals will invest their own retirement portfolios.  Accurate pricing assumes that the buyer can choose between the available options.  There are, however, thousands of stocks available on the New York Stock Exchange and the American Exchange, and many thousands more on NASDAQ and regional exchanges.  The "new" entrant into the market will more likely than not put their money in a firm whose name they already know, namely, the Blue Chip and Fortune 50 firms.

     Markets, because no buyer knows the full range of options, are inefficient pricers.  I am not, in this post, even going into the central promises and government theory bases of a national pension program.  What does government theory say about encouraging citizens to adopt corporate risk?  Stocks represent an adoption of risk, for a probability of a reward.  Adopting risk is, in effect, the opposite purpose of a government pension program.  There are flaws in the Social Security program, and there are issues to be addressed.  The privatization plans do not address the flaws, and the current debate is not addressing the issues.

     As computer people say, "Garbage In, Garbage Out."

---

     [1] Like the war in Iraq, the Bush administration has already decided that Social Security will be partially privatized.  Nothing anyone can say or do will change their goals.  This is like the Iraq War, most notably, but also like most every other serious program pushed by the Bush administration.&nsbp; There is no god, Mr. Bush.

Thanks to Rall

     I like Ted Rall's work.  Reading a lot of it at once is pretty easy, too.  Now, a lot of people give him grief over his emphasis on the we-invaded-Iraq-because-of-the-oil theory, but which is more outlandish, his mentioning it, or the corporate media spilling so much ink dismissing it?

     Thanks to this comic I set out to search for the following quote from this article, concerning Bush's pre-saved 1978 run for the US Congress

According to Gary Ott, who was then a reporter for the Plainview Daily Herald, Bush stopped by the paper’s little office “maybe five or six times. He’d sit down at my desk; he was a fun guy. He was very outgoing, very friendly, and we would argue politics since I was a liberal. We’d argue over Carter policies.” Bush criticized energy policy, federal land use policy, subsidized housing, and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (“a misuse of power,” he said), and he warned that Social Security would go bust in ten years unless people were given a chance to invest the money themselves.

     This one is simply great in case you know any Democrats who think we need to be more like the Republicans.

Tidbits of Horror

• This is an excellently handled treatment of the pension issue
• This is about the top 10 contract winners in Iraq
• This is a White House lie-fest where Bush lies and says "Our nation has committed military assets and made an initial commitment of $350 million for disaster relief."

     1 and 3 from Left I and 2 from American Samizdat.

Democrat Representative Matsui Passes

     An intelligent, experienced Democrat Representative, Matsui of California, died this week.  He was going to be one of the main assets for the Democrats in the upcoming Social Security debate.  You won't catch the Mainly Stupid Media quoting Matsui talking about this, available via Bloomberg.com (search for Matsui)...

Problems with the Social Security system are manageable and not as dire as in 1983, said Matsui, who was a member of a commission established by then-President Ronald Reagan to recommend ways to close the funding gap.

     Not as dire as 1983, that's right.

     Reminds me of my theory on the 107th Congress and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.  In the weeks between the start of Session in Congress and the inauguration of the new President, committee memberships were hashed out by the Rules Committee.  Seven Democrats were assigned to the House Committee which has oversight of intelligence, that most abused of Government features.  In order of seniority on the committee...

1. Julian Dixon, died before Cmte met
2. Norm Sissiky, died before Cmte met
3. Gary Condit, politically dead
4. Nancy Pelosi, very busy

     Three others were on the list at first.  Thank goodness Bu$hCo had such firm opposition from Democrats when he lied America into a war, eh?

I Spy

     In the last few days I started paying attention to my web server access logs.  My server is only handling the images, but it still means I can get a rough estimate of my "hits," and can also get a sense of where everyone is coming from. 

     Gosh durnit, I'm proud.  I've gotten people from .mil, .gov, from other government institutions.  I've gotten people from Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Iceland, Japan, Lithuania, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sweden, Singapore, the UK and from many parts of the United States.  And that's in the last thirty-five days!

     So, thanks for coming, unless you were a spy for some foreign intelligence service, in which case, the sunset alligator will tackle the sad clown when the moon's green cheese is snacked.  But don't tell them I told you.

     And apologies for the self-referentiality of this post.  I thought it was polite to say I was checking.  I probably could have left it at that.

More Money for Our Mercs

     Patriotic Heros, like sex-slavers DynCorp, deserve more tax dollars.  Tell Bush how you approve of his support of Virginia based, retired military, child prostitution ring operating, heros in Iraq!

     Thanks to Harry for reminding me.

We are the good guys!

     No, honest!  Why, some French Aristocrat, some besotted Frog, said we rocked, and Tocqueville was talking about George Walker B!  Read this article to learn how PERMANENT DETENTION WITHOUT TRIAL is the "happy time fun world. no comment" in the New(tm) Pentagon!  Let the humanity begin!

     Image from Reuters.

Thanks to Left I

     It's kinda self explanatory, as long as you remember that Allawi told Fallujans is that all they had to do to prevent the razing of their town was to hand over Zarqawi... who apparently wasn't there.  And then remember that all 15-50 year old men were not allowed to flee (turned back), and that some US units had orders to shoot any men they saw in that age range.  We are slaughterers.  Merry New Year, from the LA Times

Lakes of sewage in the streets. The smell of corpses inside charred buildings. No water or electricity. Long waits and thorough searches by U.S. troops at checkpoints. Warnings to watch out for land mines and booby traps. Occasional gunfire between troops and insurgents.

Old News, Dr. Sell

     Rightists have one cause, the case of Dr. Sell the Dentist, which they like to bandy about, for whatever reasons.  Perhaps, in this case, it is fear of science, specifically the science of mind-altering drugs.

     It's old news, but one might come across a Freeper, or even a sane rightist, foaming at the injustice of the Sell case, and how lefties must be evil, since they don't seem to care.  This, from Psychiatry Online, is by far the best peice I have found, illustrating both (the rightist ignored) lunacy of Dr. Sell, and the (rightist ignored) facts of the case, and the (rightist ignored) Supreme Court decision on the matter.