Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Coalition of the Unwinning
Thesis: Elected Leaders who took their countries to Iraq will not be re-elected.

Source for most election data came from the CIA World Factbook, election results from the news.

The country with a blue background has the next election.
Republic: Democratically elected leader who controls foreign policy, X equals Yes
US/UK: Former possession of the US or UK, former or currently militarily occupied by the US/UK
Next Vote: Date of next elections. L means the elections are for the Legislature only, and no Presidential elections are held.
If possible it will be indicated whether the government in power SUCCEEDED or FAILED to win re-election.

One of the camps of Anti-Federalists had the rallying cry "Where Annual Elections End, Tyranny Begins!"

UPDATE:  Looks like former members of the British Empire are immune.  Probably a linguistic (culture vector->news) element.

Country Republic US/UK Next Vote  
IcelandX,f 04/03FAILED, change in Head of Government
Rwanda  08/03Strongman Kagame wins 95% of vote
Azerbaijane 10/03Son of former Soviet Commissar elected!
Marshall IslandsbX11/03SUCCESS
Latviab 03/04Coalition falls apart day after election, PM rules with minority
El-SalvadorX 03/04New Leader, Same Party
Spainc L 03/04FAILED
MongoliaX 06/04FAILED
MacedoniaX 10/04President dies in plane crash, same party wins in early elections
Dominican RepublicXX05/04FAILED
PhilippinesXX05/04Arroyo, unelected Pres., wins first term
SlovakiaX 05/04FAILED
JapancX06/04LDP has lost majorities in both Houses
Australiaa,cXL 10/04HOWARD RETURNED
AfghanistanXX11/04Karzai stays, not elected in first place
UkraineX 11/04Yuschenko finally wins, had promised troop pull out
RomaniaX 11/04Former Communist, Promised to Withdraw, Unseated.
HungaryX 06/05
SingaporeX by 08/05
Denmarkc L by 10/05
PolandX 11/05
Solomon Islandsa,cXL by 12/05
GeorgiaX ??/05
PortugalX 01/06
Great BritaincX05/06
Costa RicaX 05/06
ColombiaX 05/06
NicaraguaX 11/06
BulgariaX ??/06
EstoniaX ??/06
MicronesiadXL 05/07
TurkeyX 05/07
AlbaniaX 06/07
EthiopiaX 10/07
Netherlandsc L ??/07
LithuaniaX ??/07
South KoreaX 12/07
Uzbekistane ??/07
CzechX ??/08
Angola  Elections indefinitely cancelled, last held in 1992
Eritrea  Isaias national leader, elections postponed indefinitely since 2001
Kuwait  Hereditary Monarchy
Tonga  Monarchy
Uganda  Museveni in power since 1986, no elections for President

A: A hereditary Monarch selects the President/Governor-General/Whatever
B: President is elected by the Parliament.
C: The leader of the Majority Party becomes Prime Minister
D: To even call this a "country," when it is actually run by the United States, is a joke.
E: Not a politically free society.
F: Ceremonial President which is popularly elected.

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